Oscar Predictions

As a small act of defiance, here's our list of who to bet on, which nominees are the worthiest, and who really deserves an award.

Best Actress

• Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents
• Felicity Huffman in Transamerica
• Keira Knightley in Pride & Prejudice
• Charlize Theron in North Country
• Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line

Nothing against Reese, who was terrific as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line, but Vera Farmiga's performance as a drug addict on her way to recovery is breathtakingly real. She's so compelling you cannot help rejoice in her small moments of pleasure, and suppress the need to scream when she falls.

Best Actor

• Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote
• Terrence Howard in Hustle & Flow
• Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain
• Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line
• David Strathairn in Good Night, and Good Luck.

This category is as straightforward as can be, and for once we're completely in line with... just about everybody else. Hoffman's chameleon act in Capote is the kind of transformation that wins awards, and deservedly so.

Best Supporting Actor

• George Clooney in Syriana
• Matt Dillon in Crash
• Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man
• Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain
• William Hurt in A History of Violence

Geoffrey Wright gave a light and delicious but surprisingly complex performance as Bill Murray's meddling Ethiopian neighbor Winston.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams in Junebug
• Catherine Keener in Capote
• Frances McDormand in North Country
• Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener
• Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain

It's more than a little bit absurd that Weisz is nominated in the supporting category. Weisz was the heart and soul of The Constant Gardener as a passionate young activist; she had just much screen time as Ralph Fiennes (who was also wonderful, by the way, and deserving of a nomination.)

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